DOTA’s Starladder Minor is live this weekend from Kiev and the competition is fiercer than ever. Four teams North America, Europe, China, Southeast Asia, South America and the Commonwealth of Independent States and duking it out for the grand prize of $72,000 USD and the most prized seed in the ESL One Los Ángeles major event. As of the time of writing this article, the group stage has concluded and the playoffs will be starting soon. Unsurprisingly to us, Team Aster and BOOM Esports pulled out ahead in Group A and Gambit Esports and Alliance were victorious in Group B. Now the playoffs bracket has been correctly seeded featuring Team Aster vs. Alliance and Gambit Esports vs. BOOM Esports. The DOTA specialists looked into the matches and made a series of predictions designed to get the most value out of the event, especially considering some of the changes coming into the event. Team CR4ZY signed the former Fighting Pandas roster with some adaptations, featuring skiter and KheZu instead of EternalEnvy and Sneyking while LaNm would stand in for QQQ on Team Aster. Now, we ask ourselves if predicting an esports event is actually possible, and if so, how much can you really get out of it?
The reality is that esports betting is not about getting perfect predictions or waging tons of money in an event. Just like sports betting, it’s all about consistency and the long run. Professional esports bettors study the event, the teams and the conditions these teams are playing in to determine which are the most valuable outcomes and then wage according to the percentage of possibility that outcome has to offer. What does this mean exactly? If you were to bet the same amount across all of your bets and they were all “obvious” bets, meaning that you were betting on the favorite all the time, there’s a chance that in the long run you would lose money. The reasoning behind this is that you are risking more than what you’re getting back and if a favorite team gets upset or starts underperforming, you would most definitely go red.
So how do we avoid this? The idea is to pinpoint upsets and balance them out with highly potential outcomes that pay a lot which requires tons of research. The easier way to start is reading articles from professionals that explain their reasoning behind it, but with time, learning to foresee this will come so long you understand the game. Joining discussions on discord and watching as much content as you can get your hands on is also great. It’s important to determine a total amount of money that you wish to bet as well as betting units, meaning percentages of that total that you’re willing to put in on different wagers depending on how likely they will happen. A small wager on an unlikely upset will definitely pay off if the return is big and if it doesn’t, you’re losing small amounts. Higher wagers will go on more possible scenarios that should slowly help your bankroll grow even if it’s by small amounts little by little. In the end, the idea is that you gather enough small wins to be able to take hits every now and then, it’s not uncommon to have multiple bets on the same match where you have a large wager on a highly likely outcome and a smaller one on a much hard prediction.
At the end of the article, the professional esports bettor at Sportsbook Review explains the format for playoffs and states that he will be posting his plays on twitter. This is another great resource, you may not want to bet yourself on the first event but do make sure to keep track of the bets, shop around and see if the bettor is making profit, if he is, you are sure to be able to do so yourself if you trail him for a few times until you’re comfortable making your own bets. However, do remember that if you’re trailing bets, you are susceptible to not mirroring his performance unless you trail 100% of his bets. Enjoy some DOTA by watching the end of the Starladder Minor, find out who will be playing at the ESL One Los Ángeles and feel free to do your research on how to make some extra cash with your esports knowledge.