FIRM PREDICTS PS3 TO BE NUMBER ONE BY 2013

Writing ahead of the expected StrategyAnalytics report next week, industry analyst David Mercer predicts that the PS3 will become the number one console by 2013, passing the Wii and leaving the 360 in the dust.

http://blogs.strategyanalytics.com/dcp/458/

According to Mercer, Sony’s install base will grow tremendously in the next three years, hitting 76 million by the end of 2009. Fuelled by the inexpensive PS3 models, Sony has seen an uptick in sales while the 360 and Wii remain static. Mercer’s says this trend will continue, ending with 127 million PS3s sold by 2013, compared to a total of 102 million Wii units in second place.

Mercer also predicts that console sales in general will slow starting next year, though both the PS3 and 360 will continue to see strong purchases.

Mercer admits that he may be looking too far into the future however, and that his predictions might change based on certain factors, though in all cases he says his estimates would be revised upward.

“Uncertainties clearly surround each of the major platforms, particularly relating to the new services and upgrades planned by Sony and Microsoft,” Mercer writes. “Natal on the Xbox could be more beneficial to 360 sales than expected, and Sony’s own motion controller, together with its plans to upgrade all PS3s to 3D capability, also represent potential for upside to our core forecasts.”